Saturday, February 12, 2011

Will the Chicago Markets Follow the Deutsche Borse NYSE Lead?

The transformation of global capital markets ramped up quickly this week with the disclosure of Deutsche Borse in talks to acquire NYSE Euronext. Should the proposed merger be approved, the combined entity will dominate derivatives trading in Europe and America and has the potential of dominating stock trading. Germany will become the epicenter of global capital markets.

The driving forces behind the merger are economies of scale and market share. Trading system costs and regulatory expenses will be reduced in direct relation to scale of trading volume. The combined Deutsche Borse/NYSE will be an unassailable global market share growth monster dominating both continents. Costs will be reduced and pricing power will increase as competition evaporates.

How are the Chicago exchanges along with Nasdaq going to compete against this new dominant force? Joining forces and fighting to keep and expand market share appears to be the best solution.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange already dominates US futures trading. Increased trading volume will have to come from growth in Europe. Nasdaq has an exchange in Sweden, but will find it very difficult to grow in Europe with a combined Deutsche Borse/NYSE.

The Chicago Board of Exchange, CBOE, is the largest US options mart, with several extremely valuable, exclusively traded large volume options. Because of its US options dominance, the CBOE is a very likely, though very expensive, take over target.

A combined Nasdaq, CME, CBOE, with perhaps an Asian exchange added, would make a formidable competitor to a united Deutsche Borse/ NYSE.

Deal makers will probably wait to see if the proposed Deutsch Borse/ NYSE merger becomes reality. If and when it does, additional exchange market merger announcements will be forth coming.

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