For the past several weeks the news has all been energy positive with big houses and OPEC raising energy demand forecasts for 2011. The International Energy Association (IEA), however, casts a different light on their forecast. Traders will do well to take heed.
The IEA released a tempered outlook for energy demand in 2011. They are foreseeing slower growth in China leading to a lower demand. Crude prices are being pegged to a range of $75 to $85. A sharp contrast to OPEC's $85 to $95 range. And even larger contrast to Goldman Sach's 2011 average price of $105.
The hope of a US economic recovery along with the Fed pumping the US economy with liquidity through a $600 billion bond purchasing strategy, has given traders the green light to add to long positions, driving crude past $90.
This has allowed traders to retrace the ever important 78.6% retracement level. A technical pull back is likely off this closely watched Fibonacci number. However, ultimately traders will need to heed any interest rate hikes coming out of China that will slow their economy and ultimately energy demand.
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